The Democrats have a 50-50 Senate majority (thanks to the power of the Vice President to break ties). A few months ago it seemed like the Republicans were a shoe in to win back the House. However, several legislative wins for Biden (regardless if they have the desired results and the question of whether the abortion issue will motivate voters (both Republican and Democratic). Democrats have a 50-50 Senate majority
Senior Republicans are admitting that the tide is turning against them in the battle for the Senate. Mitch McConnell, the Republican Majority Leader, said recently that the chances of Republicans retaking the chamber were “50-50.” Election forecasters have also picked up on the trend and now expect Democrats to maintain their Senate majority. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model now favors Democrats, while the Cook Political Report has changed its prediction to a toss-up.
Trump’s endorsement may not be enough to force other candidates to drop out
Trump’s endorsement in Missouri’s Senate race could help both candidates, but he’s not the final pick. The former President had said in July he wouldn’t endorse the third front runner in the race, Republican Vicky Hartzler. But Hartzler acknowledged Trump’s unpredictability. In recent months, the two main Republican candidates have become increasingly bitter, and Trump’s endorsement may not be enough to force other candidates to drop out.
Abortion issue could motivate voters
In Ohio, the Abortion Issue is a very real political issue that could drive the margin in the Senate race. The state has shifted to the right over the past decade. While the Democratic nominee for Senate, Tim Ryan, is a staunch pro-choice advocate, his Republican opponent, J.D. Vance, says that women should not be allowed to have abortions. Ryan also tweeted recently that we need to abolish the filibuster and pass the Women’s Health Protection Act, which codifies Roe.
Congressional Democrats plan to eject certain Democrats from committees
There is a lot of speculation about the 2024 House and Senate races. Congressional Republicans plan to eject certain Democratic lawmakers from key committees if Republicans win back the US Congress in 2022. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy announced plans to eject three Democratic lawmakers from key committees.
Republican candidates are relying on pocketbook issues
In spite of uncertainty many believe there will be a “red wave” in 2022 thanks to the economy. Republicans are hammering Democrats on crime, border security, and energy independence, arguing that the Democrats are putting policies into place that will hurt the American people. This November, all 435 House seats and a third of the US Senate are up for grabs. Control of Congress will depend on this election. In the past, first-term presidents have suffered significant losses in mid-term elections.
GOP candidates have raised more money than Democrats
Republican candidates have raised more money than Democrats in a handful of key battleground states, but Democrats are raising money in states they’re not favored to win. In Ohio, Rep. Tim Ryan raised more than $9 million, and in Florida, Rep. Val Demings raised $12.2 million. In North Carolina, Sen. Cheri Beasley has raised more than $7 million. Both Democrats have raised large amounts of money, but they’ve both lost the Democratic primary in Alaska.